HKGK....?

[Riprap]

"remarks:
020300z position near 22.4s 41.9e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 14s (irina), located approximately 595 nm east-
northeast of Maputo, Mozambique, has tracked southwestward at 13
knots over the past six hours. Animated infrared satellite imagery
indicates that tc 14s has turned southwestward as it begins to steer
along the northern periphery of an extension of the subtropical
ridge (str), which is building over the southern Mozambique Channel.
Animated water vapor imagery indicates a strong poleward outflow
channel with weak to moderate (15-20 knots) vertical wind shear
(vws). The current intensity is based on Dvorak estimates of 55
knots from pgtw and knes. The dynamic models and ensemble models are
in tight agreement on the westward track through tau 72. In the
extended Taus, a deep midlatitude trough is forecast to deepen over
south Africa, weakening the str and leading to increasing spread in
the model guidance. Vws is forecast to decrease over the next 12
hours, therefore, tc 14s is forecast to intensify to a peak
intensity near 75 knots by tau 36. This forecast favors a decrease
in track speeds as the system approaches Maputo and dissipation as
tc 14s tracks inland. The jtwc forecast is positioned close to the
model consensus through tau 72. Maximum significant wave height at
020000z is 20 feet. Next warnings at 021500z and 030300z. Refer to
tropical cyclone 15s (fifteen) final warning (wtxs32 pgtw).//""